Marathi Manoos

I thoroughly enjoyed watching Raj Thackeray interviewed by Arnab Goswami last Sunday. Delighted, in fact, for it provided the rare occasion where Arnab was lost for words, and resembled a castrated cat. Part of the problem, I guess, was that Raj chose to respond in Marathi. It's kinda obvious, but I missed the beginning so maybe Raj offered a particular explanation for not answering in English. And it wasn’t clear whether Arnab understood Marathi or if they ended up using an interpreter, which explains his constipated questioning. (I am ruling out the possibility that Raj doesn't know English.)

Raj, though, was perfectly composed and his answers, while uncompromising, were logical and rational. He basically pointed out that all states have a responsibility to their residents, and Maharashtra in general, and Mumbai in particular, shouldn’t have to bear the brunt of poor governance elsewhere. He also begged to differ from the popular opinion that Mumbai is a commercial and financial hub becauseof its migrant population. Rather, he noted, that because Mumbai had all the characteristics to be such a hub, that people flocked in. On the question of preferential treatment for Marathis, he simply pointed to agitations in Tamil Nadu and Karnataka, where representation for localites has always been an issue. In Bangalore, for example, I recall a recent push by the local film industry to ban screening of Tamil and Telugu films because Kannada films have no viewers! On Chhat puja, he was enraged that, except in Mumbai, the event is not organized at such a scale anywhere else. I think he gave the example of Maldives that has a significant immigrant population.

His analysis of the situation is spot on. The root cause, of course, is the asynchronous pace of development, which also explains the urban-rural (India-Bharat) divide to an extent. But Raj neither has the ability nor the inclination to attack the root so he is simply going after the symptom. One can only question his approach rhetorically and ask, were the tables reversed, then would he, a migrant, accept being subjected to such discrimination by natives? Same goes for the migrants too – would they, as natives, watch in silence when their cities and towns start filling up with migrants?

Paths of Glory

Wanted a break from serious reading so picked up Jeffrey Archer's Paths of Glory last week. It is an engrossing account of Goerge Leigh Mallory's attempt to conquer Mt. Everest in the 1920s. Dont let that turn you off for this book is as good as any of Archer's thrillers.

My only experience with rock climbing is going up an artificial 20-ft mobile rock in an offsite during my MBA program. I managed to climb up, but was so tired when I got there that I let the safety wires bring me down. Agreed, I am not the epitome of fitness, but the experience did give me some idea of how tough it is to climb mountains. So to even think of climbing the Everest in the 1920s sounds like sheer madness. The use of oxygen was considered "cheating" at that time and the only cover from the -40 degree temperature was multiple layers of clothing. Which sound like minor inconveniences when you consider that no one had done it before so one had no clue of what route to take and what the conditions will be like.

Archer is in good form despite the dry nature of the subject and refrains from launching into monologues on mountaineering. In some ways, this is a romantic novel where the protagonist happens to be a mountaineer.

If you have never heard of George Mallory, I recommend reading this book first before googling him. Even if you do happen to know about his life and times, this is still worth a read.

Scarcity in Abundance

I was baffled the first time I came across a STOP sign in the US. Thankfully, it was before I started driving there. I saw vehicles approach the sign from all directions, stop for a moment or two, and proceed without any commotion or confusion. I tried my best to crack the code, but gave up, and asked an American colleague. She gave me a ridiculous look and said, well, whoever approaches the STOP sign first, gets to go first. #@$@##@!!

Of course, STOP signs will never work in our country, but even signals are under pressure. On my way to work, I stopped at a red light, put on the hand brake and waited for the signal to turn green. Obviously, I was a novice. The professionals don’t believe in relaxing. Rather, they are on the lookout for the signal to turn green for the cross-traffic, judge how long it would remain so, and slowly start inching towards the intersection as it turns amber, such that by the time our signal turned green, they zip off a clean 5 seconds ahead of us. That’s an important 5 seconds though for they manage to reach the next signal ahead of the pack, and in front of the line.

I am quite certain I have indulged in similar acts of desperation, either on the road or elsewhere, so I don’t consider myself any different. But what drives our behavior? I believe it is the deep sense of insecurity embedded in our national psyche. Generations have grown up in misery and scarcity where life was a zero-sum game. You won only if your neighbor lost. Although the situation has considerably improved, these fears have not been fully alleviated.

This is aptly summed up by Shashi Kapoor in the movie, Deewar. The scene shows Shashi Kapoor being interviewed for a manager position. The interviewers like him and offer him the job when a young lad barges in. He apologizes for the delay and explains that he had to walk as he was out of money for the bus fare. The interviewers turn him away because the job has already been offered. Unable to see the young lad in misery, Shashi Kapoor rejects the job citing poor pay. The job goes to the lad, who recognizes this gesture and is extremely grateful. Shashi Kapoor simply suggests that “Yeh zindagi ek third class ka dibba hain dost. Main baith jaata, tho tum khade ho jaate.”

Austerity and Keynesian Economics

I am not the best articulator of economic concepts but this is too tempting to let go. The government has decided to cut costs. MPs and ministers are being asked to fly economy and use state guest houses.

This move is an economic disaster, especially when we are yet to fully recover from the recession. The GDP of a nation can be expressed as a sum of consumption, investment, government spending and net exports:

Z = C + I + G + NX

Roughly, GDP is the total value of goods and services produced by an economy. Now, for the economy to be in equilibrium, production must equal consumption. Therefore, GDP equals aggregate demand, which equals aggregate supply.

According to Keynes, the aggregate supply drives the GDP of an economy in the long run. That is, the resources available with a nation, both natural resources and people, will eventually determine what a country can produce, and therefore, what is available for consumption. In the short run, however, it is the aggregate demand that rules. When demand goes up, supply levels will adjust upwards to meet this increase.

Now, looking at the above equation, one way to increase GDP growth is to increase consumption, which means put more money in people's hands so they can spend. This is precisely the logic behind stimulus packages. But what's the guarantee that I will spend the money? As it is, the economy is gloomy, so I might rather put it in a bank deposit. To make that option unattractive, central banks cut interest rates, so you either spend or invest your money, both of which will boost the economy as can be seen in the above equation.

Government spending is much more effective in getting economies out of recession. Every rupee spent by the government has a multiplier effect, because it creates demand, which fuels more demand and so on. Tax cuts work in a similar manner. When people have more disposable income, well, they dispose it off in some way, which boosts consumption again.

So the present government's decision to embark on an austerity drive is an economic blunder. If ministers do not stay in hotels, the hospitality industry will suffer a slump. Hotels will have to make some cut backs that will result in people losing jobs and their vendors such as catering and laundry guys losing business. When these people have less money to spend, they will cut back on festival purchases such as apparel, which is the boom season for the retail industry. So now the retail industry will get into a slump and so on.

Of course, these effects would kick in only if the government stopped "spending". I doubt if our government was ever prompt in paying for its services, and has probably accumulated several years of unpaid dues so we shouldn't worry too much.

Anyway, with solid corruption, money will still be flowing freely in the black economy that will at some point trickle into the mainstream and boost demand. I can't remember right now, but I believe at least one well-known economist actually made the point that the underground economy plays the role of a stimulus package.

Farce India

Force India's fortunes have undergone a dramatic turnaround in the last two races, and our media has spared no effort to shove this piece of trivia onto our face. I fail to understand why this is a matter of notional, let alone national, importance.

The team has been part of the F1 scene for years under various names. The owners, unhappy with its performance, found a sucker in Mr. Mallya. Ever the publicity seeker, he promptly made much noise and named it Force India, which actually reminds of the old Air India joke. We all know how well his decision to start an airline as a marketing campaign for liquor brands is working out. What makes us think he will do any better with an F1 team? Anyway, except for Mr. Mallya, nothing in the team is remotely Indian. Not the engine, not the crew and definitely not the drivers. Mr. Mallya is not even the full owner although he has pulled off the brilliant gimmick of attaching our nation's name to the team.

So, it irks me to no end when he makes statements such as "Force India carries the hopes of a billion people." The words that come to my mind are too strong to mention here. I doubt if any self-respecting F1 fan is actually cheering for Force India. The ones doing the cheering are either in the media or are people just content with "India" and some variation of "victory" being used in the same sentence. (I shouldn't blame the second group for those are indeed rare occasions.)

Far from protesting the embarrassing reference to our country – until recently, the drivers were finishing in double digit positions and were engaged in duel to not finish last - we have found cause for celebration.

Plane drivers

Are the pilots right?

Unions are a pain for any management, but to fire pilots for starting a union sounded extreme. Apparently, it was set off because the relations between management and pilots soured when Jet wanted to cut back on pilot pay.

However, I wasnt too comfortable with the idea of going on a pseudo strike and causing inconvenience to the general public let alone losses to Jet. But I was simply stunned when I learned that pilots make as much as 10L per month. Yes, per month. Some might make less but nothing below 3-5L. I heard Naresh Goyal on TV say that people making that kind of money shouldnt be exploiting rules intended for blue-collared workers. And that sounded logical. (Let me get this out of the way. I did feel pangs of jealousy on hearing the size of the pay packet.)

So the point is, do employees with six-figure salaries really need unions?  Such people have high intellect and specialized skill sets that cannot be easily replaced. That also means they have plenty of employment options. Their thought process is broad enough to consider the possibility of job loss and save for the rainy day (which bluecollared workers may not or even cannot). But airlines is an oligopoly, and one that is not doing too well. As it is, you have no  more than 5-6 airlines in our country with the majority of them losing money. While airlines may not be able to join hands publicly, they can still work behind the scenes to keep salaries down. A couple of years ago, our own IT companies agreed not to poach from one another, and have repeatedly stated that rising employee salaries are a concern.  Whether such moves amount to collusion or cooperation is a matter of debate.

I think the pilots are right in forming a union to maintain the power balance, but in the process have shown that they are no more than simple plane drivers. That is, they are no different from a railway motorman or a crane operator  who will find himself at sea should he be let go. It is not a skillset that can be transferred to a different industry.

Karan’s coup

Karan Thapar has to be one of the most obnoxious TV interviewers anywhere in the world. He symbolizes all things wrong with our media. Yet, he did pull a coup of sorts the other day when he got Jet Airways ED, Saroj Datta on his show with Capt. Sam Thomas (one of the pilots initially sacked) on the phone. And in his thankfully inimitable style, Karan did all the talking, skillfully twisting the meaning of their words here, and shamelessly putting words into their mouths there.

I was stunned that the two parties so adamant on sticking to their positions chose to talk on his show rather than have a direct discussion. I guess once these matters are public, neither wants to extend a hand and be seen as weak.

I was more surprised that Sam Thomas chose to participate. The pilots are walking a thin line by going on mass sick leave. No one believes they are sick, unless they mean "sick" in a perverted way. And given the inconvenience caused, the public is not going to be too merciful. So to appear on a TV show and state that the agitation will continue and we are being discriminated against only offers evidence to the obvious - that the mass sickness is indeed a strike. The pilots have numbers on their side and it might save them from any severe consequences, but to be so brazen shows a sense of pride, which they say comes before a fall.

The problem with airlines...

Pilots declare strike. Management threatens. Pilots go on mass sick leave. Management sends doctors to their homes. Had it not inconvenienced so many travelers, this was just the kind of comic relief to lighten up these gloomy days of recession.

Today's strike aside, most airlines worldwide are headed for a disaster. I think the problem is lack of creativity. Airlines is a boring industry in every aspect. They are highly capital intensive and are subject to several regulations due to safety concerns. Consequently, they are "boxed" within a certain framework with very little room for creativity. Take the safety instructions by the crew before takeoff for example. (It is only Southwest that has managed to break out and the results are there to see.)

Even the names are boring. Jet Airways, Spice Jet, Indigo, Go Air. One would be pardoned for concluding that the law requires airlines to include either Jet or Go in their names. Even worldwide, the names are surprisingly drab. Except for Virgin which has gone to the other extreme, and following in its footsteps, our own Kingfisher.

Contrast it with how IT firms are named. Apple, Sun, Oracle, Google, Adobe etc. Except for Microsoft, no one felt the need to announce what business they are in, let alone where they are from. Whereas for airlines the preferred choice is the nationality of the airline followed by "airlines".

The only way the airlines can come out of their perpetual slump is by hiring a software CEO.

Cold Steel

I had heard great things about the book. Still, I was reluctant to spend money on something whose climax is well-known. Given that both cos were Europe-based, government intervention and interference was expected and references to Mittal's racial background could not be ruled out. I presumed the book would follow some kind of a timeline leading upto the finale, but beyond that I had no idea what it offered or why it got such great reviews. So I picked it up with a pinch of salt.

Right from page 1, it sucked me in. I forced myself to put it away so I could get some sleep at nights. The writing was plain and for the most part didnt get in the way of the narrative. The events that unfolded were so intriguing they needed no literary embellishment. Although at times the authors did provide some arbit literary twists. I also found it difficult to remember all the characters given that there were so many of them. And their European names didnt help. The book is little biased towards the Mittal camp, both in terms of coverage as well as characterizations. Maybe the Mittals happily cooperated for the book whereas the erstwhile Arcelor execs werent too forthcoming.

But the big question I have is on the neutrality of the book, or the lack thereof. Right from the time Lakshmi Mittal first wanted to talk to Guy Dolle (Arcelor's CEO at the time) about collaboration, Dolle was shown as a snob whereas Mittal was depicted as a victim of persecution. This, despite the fact that Mittal's team for this bid consisted of the best in the business. I would think Mittal's success is as attributable to the caliber of his team and their clout as it is to his personal humility during the course of the battle. Reading the book, you cant help but get the feeling that it was mostly Mittal's humility that clinched the deal whereas his character flaws are conveniently glossed over. It is quite possible that things did go down this way. Just that it reada bit like a fairy tale.

It would seem the Mittal's PR team has a done a great job not only during the bid but also in managing the aftermath, of which the book is one. In any case, this is a definite must read if only for the visceral thrills on offer.

Back from Jaipur...

Fell in love with the city at first sight. The new part of the city is well laid out with broad roads and tree lined avenues. The old city is of course rich with history and tradition and the walls are colored in what I thought was a shade of saffron. (Dont quite know how it got construed as pink.)

Had only about 4 hours to spare so it was whirlwind sight seeing. The city palace was very impressive. Clearly, the emperors of this part of our country were well ahead of their times (Maybe they all were). It had trophies from winning polo competitions as far back as 1920s. The arms and weapons collection was breathtaking. Daggers with jade and crystal hilts! Reminded me of Mahabharat and Tipu Sultan serials. I couldnt help wondering how tough wars of those days must have been.

The weather was warm and sultry and the traffic a bit unorganized but other than that no complaints at all.

Saved by our incompetence

The jury is still out on why we missed the financial crisis. Some popular reasons include the strong culture of domestic savings, rural demand, YV Reddy's supposed foresight and so on. But there is one cause that is completely overlooked, our own incompetence.

A simple analysis of bike and car accidents should reveal that the cause is often a foolish driver. He was drunk, speeding, trying to cut lanes, racing with another driver etc. What goes unnoticed is that the people enticed into doing these things are competent as well. I mean, do you see cars used by driving schools ever involved in an accident. Yes, the teacher can control them, but considering that you have all the beginners driving, these cars must be the most accident prone. Yet it rarely happens because learners hardly drive faster than 20kmph.

The Americans really pushed the envelope of their financial system. But only because they were thoroughly familiar with its intricacies in the first place. Most of our bankers are still grappling with our financial system, thanks to the public sector legacy. Our capital markets are not well developed and the general public is still skeptical about the term "investment".

In a sense, the US went into the Olympics and made a mess whereas we never qualified. But hey, at least, we are not losers!

Today’s news, Tomorrow’s history

Until last week, swine flu deaths were prominently reported on the front pages of leading national dailies. But now, they have been relegated to a mere statistic. Has swine flu suddenly become less dangerous? Is it no longer the epidemic it was made out to be?

Hardly, but our imagination has moved on. Even Jaswant Singh is so last week. Force India and Fisichella are in. And the debate on Pokhran II is brewing and will probably be the next big story. The aphorism that public memory is short sounds so true, and if anything, it seems to get shorter. But what is often overlooked is that memory can be easily rekindled, especially in the Internet age as is beautifully captured in a scene in the film, Notting Hill.

Julia Roberts, playing an American actress in the movie, ends up spending the night at Hugh Grant’s place. The next morning papparazzi show up and pics are snapped. Julia is all hyper about the situation, but Hugh asks her to chill for the public memory is remarkably short and this too shall pass. But Julia retorts that it will pass for him, but every time a journo wants to write something about her in the future, he will search the archives, come across this image, and make sure to print it. (Am trying to find the exact lines. Even IMDB doesnt have it.)

I guess my point is if you are in the news for the wrong reasons, the entire nation doesnt have to actively track your fortunes. It only takes one person to run into you several years after the incident and exclaim, “That was you? Wasn’t it?”

Today's news, Tomorrow's history

Until last week, swine flu deaths were prominently reported on the front pages of leading national dailies.  But now, they have been relegated to a mere statistic. Has swine flu suddenly become less dangerous? Is it no longer the epidemic it was made out to be?

Hardly, but our imagination has moved on. Even Jaswant Singh is so last week. Force India and Fisichella are in. And the debate on Pokhran II is brewing and will probably be the next big story. The aphorism that public memory is short sounds so true, and if anything, it seems to get shorter. But what is often overlooked is that memory can be easily rekindled, especially in the Internet age as is beautifully captured in a scene in the film, Notting Hill.

Julia Roberts, playing an American actress in the movie, ends up spending the night at Hugh Grant's place. The next morning papparazzi show up and pics are snapped. Julia is all hyper about the situation, but Hugh asks her to chill for the public memory is remarkably short and this too shall pass. But Julia retorts that it will pass for him, but every time a journo wants to write something about her in the future, he will search the archives, come across this image, and make sure to print it. (Am trying to find the exact lines. Even IMDB doesnt have it.)

I guess my point is if you are in the news for the wrong reasons, the entire nation doesnt have to actively track your fortunes. It only takes one person to run into you several years after the incident and exclaim, "That was you? Wasn't it?"