Mental Accounting

I spent the Diwali weekend in Chennai. I decided to make the trip only a week in advance, and was frantically searching every damn website for the cheapest fare, but found nothing below 10K return. Out of sheer luck, I stumbled upon Indian Airlines, which was offering a return trip for 5K. I couldn’t believe my eyes and booked my tickets without a second thought. In the rush to save money, I booked my return for Sunday night despite Monday being a holiday. By the time I realized this and wanted to make the change, the fares had gone up by 3K so I let it be.

inThe magnitude of the fare sunk in only when I saw the credit card statement. 5K is not a small amount. Of course, it's hard to deny that the deal was a sweet one "under the circumstances”. So I set about analyzing what the circumstances were. First, how badly did I want to be in Chennai? My mom had gone there a week ago and would be there during Diwali. Most of my extended family lives there, and I had not visited them for more than a year. Neither did I have any alternate plans of celebrating Diwali in Mumbai. So, yes, I wanted to go badly. But I think there is another factor that tipped my decision in favor of going.

I came across the expensive fares first. I saw 10K, thought the airlines were crazy, and decided it was best to spend some money on beer and the weekend in bed. But when I saw a fare half that number, the temptation to save 5K was overpowering. Would I have made the trip had the fare been 5K uniformly across airlines? Or even if the going fare was, say 7K, and I was getting it for 5K. Maybe not. The incentive to save 2K is not as irresistible. To give you an example, I shopped at Pantaloons this weekend. At checkout, the sales guy asked me to enrol into their rewards program. I had to pay Rs. 100 to get into the club, and would be immediately rewarded with a gift voucher for Rs. 200. Without hesitation, I declined the offer.

What's my point? I am trying to analyze the trip financially. Did I spend 5K - a loss, save 5K - profit, or spent 5K to save 5K – net net? (In the second case, I think I definitely saved Rs. 100 by not going for the card.)

The business of business...

Continuing with thoughts on business models...

To exist, businesses must deliver value to its customers - this is different from the debate on creating value for shareholders vs stakeholders. Preferably, value must be tangible, but in some cases, it is notional. The industry that best demonstrates value creation is IT. Just imagine the time and effort wasted on mundane tasks everyday if we didn't have Windows and Microsoft Office.

Of course, value creation is not as obvious in all cases. Entertainment and television, for example. Some people would argue that television is turning us into morons and is actually value destroying. Yet, the industry is exploding. This is a case of notional value, where people are ready to lap up any and every form of entertainment. It can be risky to bet on such models because they fundamentally rely on exploiting consumer preferences. Very similar to what the fashion industry does. The value created is not by clothing people but rather by making people feel that their clothes are better than others. This is also the business model of our local quack, palmist and other fortune tellers – they all make the consumer feel better.

The ability to deliver notional value on top of real value is the holy grail of a successful business. Which means, not only is the product good, but you also take pride in ownership. The ipod and iphone are perfect examples. World-class products enhanced by the “Apple” brand. Even here, the relative magnitude of the tangible and notional values matter. So long as the tangible value is much larger than the notional one, the business is stable. Microsoft, for example, probably has a negative notional value, but is yet a profitable business because it offers unmatched tangible value. On the other hand, FMCG products do have some tangible value, but rely heavy on notional value. I doubt if any of us can differentiate between two shampoos in a blind test.

The simplest way to check whether a business adds value is to ask if it helps people do stuff “faster, better and cheaper”. Ideally, all three aspects must be addressed but sometimes addressing even two is okay.