Measurement and Importance

A recent campaign by Aircel attempts to raise awareness about the dwindling tiger population in India. Apparently there are only 1411 of them, but the campaign only asks people to spread awareness about this info - how it will translate into action, and more importantly what action, is anybody's guess. So here I am, doing my bit. But I am incredibly uninformed about the magnitude of the Tiger situation. Is 1411 a small number? I dont know the life expectancy or mortality rates in tigers, but assuming 10 tigers die every year, we are still good for 140 years without counting new additions. In comparison, global warming looks a near term issue.

Another hot topic is how to deal with drunk drivers. The recent high-profile incident in South Mumbai has everyone clamoring for harsher penalties and stricter punishment. To be clear, drunk driving is extremely dangerous and must be punished. But is it the most dangerous form of driving out there? Again, I dont know the stats, but I doubt that drunk driving causes the highest number of accidents or deaths. I'd say its overspeeding and breaking of traffic rules.

One of our psychological biases is to automatically attach importance to what can be measured because we are more comfortable with tangibles than abstracts. Nowhere is this more visible than in our financial markets where all sorts of ratios and indicators are used to explain trends. Once a metric has been devised, of course, a proper explanation inevitably follows, and this is called post rationalization which we are extremely good at.

Drunk driving must be dealt with but what about other offences that are equally fatal? There is no tangible metric to measure these offences nor a system to track such offenders. With drunk driving though, the cops simply have to hang out in the vicinity of night clubs with a breathalyzer and they are sure to find offenders, which will make for good reporting and fat wallets. To say there are only 1411 tigers sounds much more desperate than simply asking people to stop poaching tigers. This bias is also prevalent in the corporate world where sales, billing, collections, margins etc are emphasized to death. It is widely assumed, and incorrectly so, that numbers dont lie. Intangibles like employee morale and customer satisfaction are hardly ever focused on. And here's the worst part. Even when cos choose to look at these intangibles, the attempt is always to create a survey and get a number which simply defeats the purpose. For the life of me, I cannot figure out what it means to have customers who are 88.5% satisfied.

The Consequences of Drunk Driving

We have seen several cases of negligent or drunk drivers losing control of their vehicles and running over pedestrians. In some cases, such as the recent one in Noida, the consequences are fatal. The outrage against the offenders is understandable, but the saddening outcomes prevent us from making an objective assessment.

First, one would say hit-and-runs must be punished severely for it shows utter disregard to the life of a fellow human being. But if you drive on Indian roads, you very well know the fate that awaits you should you stop to check on the victim. A mob quickly gathers and you are the target of all their pent up frustration. In several cases, mob assaults have caused deaths too. Can one really blame the driver for fleeing the crime scene?

On the question of negligent and drunk driving, there is no dispute that such offenders must be severely punished. But the most stringent penalty for such an offence is probably to revoke their driver’s license and levy a huge monetary fine, and possibly a few days in prison. Were the offence of rash/drunk driving committed in the day during heavy traffic, it could be argued that the driver put lives of fellow commuters at risk, and a more stringent penalty is required – possibly charging with intent to murder or something like that. But during the night, when the roads are deserted, is rash driving so bad? It is understandable that the victims and their survivors, and even the general public, will be in no mood to consider this. A life has been lost, and that implies the offender must be tried for murder.

Of course, the law makes a difference between murder and manslaughter. Murder implies premeditated killing whereas manslaughter denotes no prior intent. But even a manslaughter charge is harsh from the offenders’ perspective. You are returning from a late-night party with a nice buzz when you see a deserted patch of road and decide to let it go. The worst you expect is to crash against the pavement. Imagine your shock when you hit the pavement only to realize you have just crushed three people sleeping there.

My point is that harsh punishments in individual cases won’t change anything beyond providing emotional relief to the victims and survivors. The underlying risk of recurrence remains. The solution must be to create a strong disincentive against rash and drunk driving. And there must be an equally strong disincentive against squatting/occupying pavements and roadsides. I realize both are easier said than done, but the risks are worrisome if not addressed. If you drive on a regular basis, you know the feeling when you watch pedestrians crossing the road with no regard to the oncoming traffic.